This is the first set of predictions on UFC Ultimate Fighter, I guess I'd better get some of them right.
Mirko Cro Cop vs Gabriel Gonzaga:
We all know about Mirko Cro Cop's outstanding stand up. He's one of the best strikers we've ever seen in MMA. However Mirko's talents do not end there. He has developed an outstanding takedown avoidance. His sprawl reminds me a bit of Chuck Liddell's. Once the fight hits the ground, Mirko has gotten pretty good at avoiding submissions too, this was evident in his fight with Fedor. Mirko did not win that fight, but he didn't get submitted either, showing his improvement on the ground.
Gabriel Gonzaga has an excellent MMA record of 7-1 and has won fights by both TKO and submissions. His one loss came by a TKO courtesy of Heavyweight contender Fabricio Werdum. Werdum happens to be fighting Andrei Arlovski on the same UFC 70 card.
I'll give Mirko the decisive edge in standup and Gonzaga an edge on the ground. That said, I believe that Mirko can defend against Gonzaga if the fight goes to the ground...I doubt that it will get to the ground however. I think Mirko will use his sprawl early as he waits patiently for an opening to deliver either his hard straight punches, or devestating high kicks. I'm picking Mirko Cro Cop in this fight, probably by TKO
Andrei Arlovski vs Fabricio Werdum
Sometimes when analyzing a fight I like to look at fighters losses as opposed to their wins. This highlights a fighters weaknesses and if these weaknesses play into their current opponents hand then sometimes you can predict a fight's outcome more accurately. In this case if we look at Fabricio Werdum's record we do not see a single knockout loss, even in his decision loss to Sergei Kharitonov who I consider to be a striker of almost the same calibre as Arlovski. To me, that indicates that Werdum has a solid chin. He even has a couple of wins via striking, but none against a striker like Arlovski.
Coincidentally, all of Arlovski's losses come by way of KO or TKO. This makes us suspect Andrei Arlovski's chin a bit.
So, where does that leave us in terms of predictions for UFC 70's Arlovski vs Werdum match? Striker vs BJJ expert. Classic matchup, with a bit of a twist. We have a striker facing a guy with a good chin and a BJJ expert against a guy who's never been submitted. Arlovski will get the better of the standup in this match, but if Werdum can land one big punch (he does have TKO victories) it may be over quickly. I don't expect this fight to go the distance, but I do expect Arlovski to win in the end.
Prediction: Andrei Arlovski by TKO
more predictions to come...
