UFC Predictions - Andrei Arlovski

UFC 70 Weigh-In Results

nospam@example.com (UFC Ultimate Fighter) — Fri, 20 Apr 2007 11:34:58 -0700

From UFC.com

UFC 70 Weigh-In Results
Official weigh-in results for UFC 70 – Nations Collide, which will take place Saturday night at the MEN Arena in Manchester, England.

Main Event
Gabriel Gonzaga (243) vs Mirko Cro Cop (225)

Lyoto Machida (199) vs David Heath (205)
Elvis Sinosic (205) v Michael Bisping (204)
Fabricio Werdum (233) vs Andrei Arlovski (238)
Assuerio Silva (241) vs Cheick Kongo (229)

Matt Grice (155) vs Terry Etim (154)
Junior Assuncao (155) vs David Lee (155)
Victor Valimaki (203) vs Alessio Sakara (204)
Dennis Siver (167) v Jess Liaudin (168)
Edilberto Crocota (169) vs Paul Taylor (169)

UFC Heavyweight Division - One Year Later

nospam@example.com (UFC Ultimate Fighter) — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 11:15:27 -0700

What a difference a year makes, especially to the UFC heavyweight division. Just a year ago, it was thought by many that the UFC heavyweight division was the least interesting of the weight classes. In fact, the moment that Tim Sylvia defeated Andrei Arlovski for the UFC heavyweight title in April 2006, it became the UFC's most boring division. In fact, 2 minutes and 43 seconds into that fight Arlovski went down and with it, the excitement left.

July of last year saw a rematch with Sylvia facing Arlovski again, but unlike their first two bouts this one would go the distance. It was the longest 25 minutes of my MMA watching life. Neither fighter engaged, neither landed big shots or attempted big take downs. Something had to be done, the hard core UFC fans did not want to see Arlovski Sylvia 4, and there were no other real challengers.

Something has happened since then, barely 9 months have passed and one title defense later sees the UFC's heavyweight division as the best in the sport. The first event was the signing of Pride standout heavyweight Mirko "Cro Cop". Mirko's incredible striking and strong take down defense earned him recognition as one of the 5 best heavyweights in the world. It was assumed by many, including myself, that Mirko was brought in as a hired gun to end Tim Sylvia's reign of terror and restore honor to the UFC heavyweight ranks.

Mirko may never get that chance, at least not with Tim Sylvia at the helm. As it turns out 43 year old Randy "The Natural" Couture decided to come out of retirement and challenge for the heavyweight title. While I'm not a huge Tim Sylvia fan, I did not give Randy much of a chance because of Tim's enormous size and reach advantage, not to mention that he's 12 or 13 years younger than Randy. Randy proved me wrong by dominating a 5 round fight. The excitement was back and Randy Couture was back on top!

UFC president Dana White was apparently not satisfied with just having a few good heavyweight fighters though, recently he's signed Brazilian submission masters Antonio Rodrigo Nogeura and Fabricio Werdum to UFC contracts. It is unknown when "Big Nog" will get his first fight in the UFC, but we do know that Werdum is to fight former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski on April 21, 2007 at UFC 70 "Nations Collide". Oh, did I forget to mention the perennial heavyweight contender Heath Herring? While Heath hasn't looked spectacular in his first two UFC outings, he was always near the top when he fought in Japan's Pride organization.

So, here's how the UFC Heavyweight division stacks up as I see it:

1 Randy Couture - UFC Heavyweight Champion
2 Mirko Cro Cop - #1 contender (will get a title shot if he wins at UFC 70 against Gabriel Gonzaga)
3 Antonio Rodrigo Nogeura - #2 contender, no fights set yet.
4 Andrei Arlovski, Tim Sylvia, Fabricio Werdum are all tied for this spot as I see it.
5 Gabriel Gonzaga - if he beats Cro Cop at UFC 70 he will get a title shot.

It's also been rumored that a win at UFC 70 by Andrei Arlovski will get him another title shot later this year.

2007 is a banner year for UFC heavyweight fans. I for one am enjoying the it.

Andrei Arlovski could get a title shot

nospam@example.com (UFC Ultimate Fighter) — Wed, 18 Apr 2007 17:37:43 -0700

According to Dana White, if Andrei Arlovski wins against Fabricio Werdum at UFC 70, he should be in line for a shot at the UFC Heavyweight Title. Current UFC Heavyweight title holder Randy "The Natural" Couture will defend his title next against either Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic or Gabriel Gonzaga. It looks like Arlovski could get to face the winner of that eventual bout. As I've said before, this weekends bout should be excellent and since I really want Arlovski to get another title shot, I'm hoping that he pulls it off.

UFC 70 is Andrei Arlovski's Big Chance

nospam@example.com (UFC Ultimate Fighter) — Tue, 17 Apr 2007 15:53:45 -0700

Not so long ago, Andrei Arlovski was thought to be almost invincible. The former UFC heavyweight champion was absolutely dominant with six wins in a row, over such names as: Paul Buentello, Justin Eilers, Wesley "Cabbage" Correira and of course Tim Sylvia. That all came to a crashing end with two successive losses to Tim Sylvia, the first by TKO and the second by decision.

Arlovski has come back to defeat Marcio Cruz by KO in the first round at UFC 66. With UFC 70 coming up this Saturday, Arlovski his work cut out for him against Fabricio Werdum. I'm sure most UFC fight fans will give Arlovski the edge in this fight based on his outstanding stand up, but Werdum is also an extremely accomplished fighter. This one might turn out to be a war, a war that Arlovski needs to win to keep re-climbing the heavyweight ranks.

Recent additions to the UFC heavyweight division include Mirko Cro Cop and Antonio Rodrigo Noguera as well as Heath Herring. Certainly the additions of Cro Cop and Big Nog push Arlovski a little further down the heavyweight food chain. I personally hope he wins this upcoming match with Werdum in style, then maybe we'll eventually get to see Arlovski vs Big Nog, or Arlovski vs Cro Cop. One thing for sure, I have no interest in Arlovski vs Sylvia 4.

UFC 70 Predictions

nospam@example.com (UFC Ultimate Fighter) — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 10:08:29 -0700

This is the first set of predictions on UFC Ultimate Fighter, I guess I'd better get some of them right.

Mirko Cro Cop vs Gabriel Gonzaga:
We all know about Mirko Cro Cop's outstanding stand up. He's one of the best strikers we've ever seen in MMA. However Mirko's talents do not end there. He has developed an outstanding takedown avoidance. His sprawl reminds me a bit of Chuck Liddell's. Once the fight hits the ground, Mirko has gotten pretty good at avoiding submissions too, this was evident in his fight with Fedor. Mirko did not win that fight, but he didn't get submitted either, showing his improvement on the ground.

Gabriel Gonzaga has an excellent MMA record of 7-1 and has won fights by both TKO and submissions. His one loss came by a TKO courtesy of Heavyweight contender Fabricio Werdum. Werdum happens to be fighting Andrei Arlovski on the same UFC 70 card.

I'll give Mirko the decisive edge in standup and Gonzaga an edge on the ground. That said, I believe that Mirko can defend against Gonzaga if the fight goes to the ground...I doubt that it will get to the ground however. I think Mirko will use his sprawl early as he waits patiently for an opening to deliver either his hard straight punches, or devestating high kicks. I'm picking Mirko Cro Cop in this fight, probably by TKO

Andrei Arlovski vs Fabricio Werdum
Sometimes when analyzing a fight I like to look at fighters losses as opposed to their wins. This highlights a fighters weaknesses and if these weaknesses play into their current opponents hand then sometimes you can predict a fight's outcome more accurately. In this case if we look at Fabricio Werdum's record we do not see a single knockout loss, even in his decision loss to Sergei Kharitonov who I consider to be a striker of almost the same calibre as Arlovski. To me, that indicates that Werdum has a solid chin. He even has a couple of wins via striking, but none against a striker like Arlovski.

Coincidentally, all of Arlovski's losses come by way of KO or TKO. This makes us suspect Andrei Arlovski's chin a bit.

So, where does that leave us in terms of predictions for UFC 70's Arlovski vs Werdum match? Striker vs BJJ expert. Classic matchup, with a bit of a twist. We have a striker facing a guy with a good chin and a BJJ expert against a guy who's never been submitted. Arlovski will get the better of the standup in this match, but if Werdum can land one big punch (he does have TKO victories) it may be over quickly. I don't expect this fight to go the distance, but I do expect Arlovski to win in the end.
Prediction: Andrei Arlovski by TKO

more predictions to come...

UFC 70 Fight Card

nospam@example.com (UFC Ultimate Fighter) — Sat, 14 Apr 2007 17:50:58 -0700

Here is the UFC 70 Fight Card:

Feature Fights
Mirko Cro Cop Vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
David Heath Vs. Lyoto Machida
Michael Bisping Vs. Elvis Sinosic
Andrei Arlovski Vs. Fabricio Werdum
Assuerio Silva Vs. Cheick Kongo

Other Fights (May not be broadcast)
Matt Grice Vs. Terry Etim
Junior Assuncao Vs. David Lee
Victor Valimaki Vs. Alessio Sakara
Dennis Siver Vs. Jess Liaudin
Edilberto Crocota Vs. Paul Taylor

While I'm looking forward to Mirko Cro Cop vs Gabriel Gonzaga, I think that David Heath vs Lyoto Machida will be the fight of the night. Also, Andrei Arlovski vs Fabricio Werdum should be an excellent fight.